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陈剑:全球新冠疫情风险指数研报(二)

 

陈剑:全球新冠疫情风险指数研报(二)

2020.8.6

全球新冠疫情风险指数网站(http://covid19-risk-index.com/)目前发布新功能,可以通过选择折线图观看选定国家地区的综合疫情指数、疫情子指数。

从全球综合风险指数的热力图来看,风险的分布并未产生较大的改变:疫情最严重的依然是美洲大陆,而东亚、东南亚的疫情控制情况依然较好,中国由于新疆疫情逐步受控,风险指数有较大的改善。但菲律宾由原来的中等风险变为高度风险。

基于最新数据,超过一万例的国家和地区中,截止84日,综合疫情指数分布如下。

Country/District (post-0722)

Total Cases

2020/7/28

2020/8/4

Diff

China

84,464

38.4

22.3

-16.0

South Korea

14,423

31.1

35.0

4.0

Germany

212,331

50.5

38.6

-11.9

Ghana

37,812

58.1

39.1

-19.0

United Arab Emirates

61,352

57.1

40.6

-16.4

Austria

21,481

55.8

45.1

-10.7

Australia

18,730

43.3

45.4

2.1

Pakistan

280,461

55.2

46.9

-8.3

Nepal

21,009

58.6

48.7

-9.9

Ethiopia

19,877

47.8

49.1

1.2

Denmark

14,073

37.0

49.8

12.9

Singapore

53,346

51.0

50.1

-1.0

Nigeria

44,433

61.5

50.3

-11.1

Azerbaijan

32,910

60.3

50.5

-9.7

Italy

248,419

57.6

52.8

-4.9

Afghanistan

36,782

71.4

53.3

-18.1

Kazakhstan

93,820

59.2

54.7

-4.6

Czech Republic

17,286

44.3

54.8

10.5

Turkey

234,934

52.6

55.0

2.4

Serbia

26,738

61.0

55.1

-5.8

Switzerland

35,746

58.9

55.7

-3.2

Belarus

68,250

56.0

55.7

-0.3

Japan

39,858

53.2

56.1

2.9

Portugal

51,681

54.5

56.2

1.8

Madagascar

11,895

61.0

56.3

-4.8

Ireland

26,253

54.3

56.4

2.1

Sudan

11,780

52.9

56.9

4.0

United Kingdom

306,293

60.7

57.0

-3.6

Uzbekistan

27,047

54.1

57.3

3.2

Kenya

23,202

64.5

57.3

-7.2

Egypt

94,752

60.2

57.6

-2.6

Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of

21,438

54.2

57.7

3.5

Senegal

10,432

58.6

58.0

-0.6

Poland

48,149

55.2

58.0

2.8

Canada

117,792

49.8

58.1

8.3

Morocco

27,217

55.1

58.3

3.2

Bahrain

42,132

62.8

58.6

-4.2

Russia

861,423

59.1

58.7

-0.4

Saudi Arabia

281,456

59.0

58.7

-0.3

Oman

79,159

71.0

59.3

-11.6

Sweden

81,181

59.4

59.6

0.2

Indonesia

115,056

57.3

60.0

2.8

Israel

76,198

66.0

61.5

-4.4

Qatar

111,538

64.7

61.7

-2.9

Côte d'Ivoire

16,293

53.7

62.1

8.3

Netherlands

55,955

63.1

63.1

0.0

Bulgaria

12,414

58.4

63.1

4.6

Cameroon

17,718

39.3

63.8

24.5

Kyrgyzstan

37,541

62.4

64.2

1.8

India

1,906,613

66.6

64.4

-2.2

France

192,334

64.9

65.5

0.6

Bangladesh

244,020

66.5

65.6

-0.9

Romania

55,241

64.3

67.1

2.8

Iran, Islamic Republic of

314,786

67.3

67.2

-0.1

Chile

362,962

74.7

67.7

-6.9

Kuwait

68,774

73.6

67.9

-5.7

Ukraine

74,219

65.5

68.0

2.5

El Salvador

18,262

68.5

68.2

-0.3

Guatemala

52,365

70.9

68.8

-2.1

North Macedonia

11,202

65.0

69.0

4.0

Belgium

70,314

73.3

70.5

-2.9

Costa Rica

19,837

83.0

70.8

-12.1

Iraq

134,722

70.6

71.2

0.6

Moldova, Republic of

25,814

70.3

71.3

0.9

United States

4,918,420

71.6

71.6

0.0

South Africa

521,318

73.1

72.1

-1.0

Ecuador

87,963

75.5

73.1

-2.4

Philippines

112,593

58.0

73.6

15.6

Armenia

39,298

73.8

73.7

-0.1

Spain

349,894

66.8

73.7

6.9

Colombia

334,979

83.7

73.8

-9.9

Mexico

443,813

76.7

75.6

-1.1

Bosnia and Herzegovina

12,856

62.2

80.0

17.8

Argentina

213,535

78.2

81.4

3.3

Dominican Republic

74,295

74.3

82.7

8.4

Bolivia, Plurinational State of

81,846

85.3

82.8

-2.4

Honduras

43,794

75.5

83.1

7.6

Peru

439,890

79.7

84.1

4.4

Panama

69,424

79.9

84.4

4.5

Brazil

2,808,076

75.0

84.8

9.8

 

与一周前(7/28)相比,有9个国家的综合疫情风险指数下降超过10,分别是:

  • ·         Ghana
  • ·         Afghanistan
  • ·         United Arab Emirates
  • ·         China
  • ·         Costa Rica
  • ·         Germany
  • ·         Oman
  • ·         Nigeria
  • ·         Austria

同时有5个国家的综合疫情风险指数上升超过10,分别是

  • ·         Czech Republic
  • ·         Denmark
  • ·         Philippines
  • ·         Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • ·         Cameroon

综合疫情风险指数上升或下降的主要因素主要还是由新增确诊病例的增长率决定,比如中国的综合疫情风险指数由38.4降至22.3,而新增确诊病例子指数由98.9下降至33.1,是变化最大的子指数。其他综合风险指数下降较快的国家也可以明显看到这一子指数与一周前相比有较大下降。

而其他综合风险指数上升较快的国家也可以明显看到这一子指数与一周前相比有较大增长。

 

抗疫尚未完成,环球同此凉热。同志齐心协力,且待人间春色。



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