陈剑：全球新冠疫情风险指数研报（二）-胸怀万仞须藏剑，心中无尘可读书-财新网

陈剑：全球新冠疫情风险指数研报（二）

（2020.8.6）

全球新冠疫情风险指数网站（http://covid19-risk-index.com/）目前发布新功能，可以通过选择折线图观看选定国家地区的综合疫情指数、疫情子指数。

从全球综合风险指数的热力图来看，风险的分布并未产生较大的改变：疫情最严重的依然是美洲大陆，而东亚、东南亚的疫情控制情况依然较好，中国由于新疆疫情逐步受控，风险指数有较大的改善。但菲律宾由原来的中等风险变为高度风险。

基于最新数据，超过一万例的国家和地区中，截止8月4日，综合疫情指数分布如下。

Country/District (post-0722)	Total Cases	2020/7/28	2020/8/4	Diff
China	84,464	38.4	22.3	-16.0
South Korea	14,423	31.1	35.0	4.0
Germany	212,331	50.5	38.6	-11.9
Ghana	37,812	58.1	39.1	-19.0
United Arab Emirates	61,352	57.1	40.6	-16.4
Austria	21,481	55.8	45.1	-10.7
Australia	18,730	43.3	45.4	2.1
Pakistan	280,461	55.2	46.9	-8.3
Nepal	21,009	58.6	48.7	-9.9
Ethiopia	19,877	47.8	49.1	1.2
Denmark	14,073	37.0	49.8	12.9
Singapore	53,346	51.0	50.1	-1.0
Nigeria	44,433	61.5	50.3	-11.1
Azerbaijan	32,910	60.3	50.5	-9.7
Italy	248,419	57.6	52.8	-4.9
Afghanistan	36,782	71.4	53.3	-18.1
Kazakhstan	93,820	59.2	54.7	-4.6
Czech Republic	17,286	44.3	54.8	10.5
Turkey	234,934	52.6	55.0	2.4
Serbia	26,738	61.0	55.1	-5.8
Switzerland	35,746	58.9	55.7	-3.2
Belarus	68,250	56.0	55.7	-0.3
Japan	39,858	53.2	56.1	2.9
Portugal	51,681	54.5	56.2	1.8
Madagascar	11,895	61.0	56.3	-4.8
Ireland	26,253	54.3	56.4	2.1
Sudan	11,780	52.9	56.9	4.0
United Kingdom	306,293	60.7	57.0	-3.6
Uzbekistan	27,047	54.1	57.3	3.2
Kenya	23,202	64.5	57.3	-7.2
Egypt	94,752	60.2	57.6	-2.6
Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of	21,438	54.2	57.7	3.5
Senegal	10,432	58.6	58.0	-0.6
Poland	48,149	55.2	58.0	2.8
Canada	117,792	49.8	58.1	8.3
Morocco	27,217	55.1	58.3	3.2
Bahrain	42,132	62.8	58.6	-4.2
Russia	861,423	59.1	58.7	-0.4
Saudi Arabia	281,456	59.0	58.7	-0.3
Oman	79,159	71.0	59.3	-11.6
Sweden	81,181	59.4	59.6	0.2
Indonesia	115,056	57.3	60.0	2.8
Israel	76,198	66.0	61.5	-4.4
Qatar	111,538	64.7	61.7	-2.9
Côte d'Ivoire	16,293	53.7	62.1	8.3
Netherlands	55,955	63.1	63.1	0.0
Bulgaria	12,414	58.4	63.1	4.6
Cameroon	17,718	39.3	63.8	24.5
Kyrgyzstan	37,541	62.4	64.2	1.8
India	1,906,613	66.6	64.4	-2.2
France	192,334	64.9	65.5	0.6
Bangladesh	244,020	66.5	65.6	-0.9
Romania	55,241	64.3	67.1	2.8
Iran, Islamic Republic of	314,786	67.3	67.2	-0.1
Chile	362,962	74.7	67.7	-6.9
Kuwait	68,774	73.6	67.9	-5.7
Ukraine	74,219	65.5	68.0	2.5
El Salvador	18,262	68.5	68.2	-0.3
Guatemala	52,365	70.9	68.8	-2.1
North Macedonia	11,202	65.0	69.0	4.0
Belgium	70,314	73.3	70.5	-2.9
Costa Rica	19,837	83.0	70.8	-12.1
Iraq	134,722	70.6	71.2	0.6
Moldova, Republic of	25,814	70.3	71.3	0.9
United States	4,918,420	71.6	71.6	0.0
South Africa	521,318	73.1	72.1	-1.0
Ecuador	87,963	75.5	73.1	-2.4
Philippines	112,593	58.0	73.6	15.6
Armenia	39,298	73.8	73.7	-0.1
Spain	349,894	66.8	73.7	6.9
Colombia	334,979	83.7	73.8	-9.9
Mexico	443,813	76.7	75.6	-1.1
Bosnia and Herzegovina	12,856	62.2	80.0	17.8
Argentina	213,535	78.2	81.4	3.3
Dominican Republic	74,295	74.3	82.7	8.4
Bolivia, Plurinational State of	81,846	85.3	82.8	-2.4
Honduras	43,794	75.5	83.1	7.6
Peru	439,890	79.7	84.1	4.4
Panama	69,424	79.9	84.4	4.5
Brazil	2,808,076	75.0	84.8	9.8

与一周前（7/28）相比，有9个国家的综合疫情风险指数下降超过10，分别是：

· Ghana
· Afghanistan
· United Arab Emirates
· China
· Costa Rica
· Germany
· Oman
· Nigeria
· Austria

同时有5个国家的综合疫情风险指数上升超过10，分别是

· Czech Republic
· Denmark
· Philippines
· Bosnia and Herzegovina
· Cameroon

综合疫情风险指数上升或下降的主要因素主要还是由新增确诊病例的增长率决定，比如中国的综合疫情风险指数由38.4降至22.3，而新增确诊病例子指数由98.9下降至33.1，是变化最大的子指数。其他综合风险指数下降较快的国家也可以明显看到这一子指数与一周前相比有较大下降。

而其他综合风险指数上升较快的国家也可以明显看到这一子指数与一周前相比有较大增长。

抗疫尚未完成，环球同此凉热。同志齐心协力，且待人间春色。

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