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陈剑:全球疫情观察(九):构建新冠风险指数,做好疫情精准防控

陈剑:全球疫情观察(九):构建新冠风险指数,做好疫情精准防控

2020.6.30

【摘要】疫情防控进入常态化,锁国毕竟不是长久之计: 欧盟有选择开放边界在即,上海也将于下半年举行进博会。

但是,要重新开放边界,就需要了解哪些国家地区属于高风险,哪些属于低风险。才能做到有的放矢,精准防控。

通过COVID-19综合风险指数,我们可以就此进行判断。本文中列出了世界所有出现确诊病例国家地区的综合风险指数及其子指数,主要包括疫情短期趋势,人口感染率,测试充足度,确诊死亡率等指标。

感谢复旦大学华山医院张文宏主任提供医学咨询; 感谢复旦大学大数据学院陈潇同学提供技术支持。

【正文】

据最新报道[1],欧盟起草了一份包含15个国家的豁免名单,若得表决通过,从71日起这些国家的公民可以前往欧盟。该名单不含美国,而中国在列。

“如果这项提案于周二获得批准,那么从71日起,包括中国、日本、韩国、加拿大和澳大利亚在内的至多15个国家的居民将受到欧盟、以及在很大程度上与欧盟国家重叠的申根共同旅行区的欢迎。该名单中还包括阿尔及利亚、格鲁吉亚、黑山、摩洛哥、新西兰、卢旺达、塞尔维亚、泰国、突尼斯和乌拉圭。中国将被列入该名单的前提是它也解除其对来自欧盟的旅行者的禁令。”

中国也在准备打开国门[2],第三届中国国际进口博览会(进博会)24日起正式接受专业观众报名,境内外专业观众可以在进博会官网(www.ciie.org)注册报名。据称,

“第三届进博会将于2020115日至10日在国家会展中心(上海)举办,企业商业展规划面积36万平方米,各国企业报名踊跃,签约展览面积超过规划面积的90%,部分展区已趋饱和。”

封关锁国乃是应急之举,坚持改革开放仍是大计。但在疫情防控常态化之时,如何打开国门,对谁打开国门,必须科学决策。

根据欧盟的标准,美国和世界大多数其他国家都被排除在这份名单之外。其标准包括各国公布的新冠肺炎感染率趋势,以及各国目前的感染率与欧盟的27个国家相比是高是低。

应该说,欧盟的标准不无道理,但是仍然不够全面。根据各国公布的感染率和趋势,其实不能得到一些至关重要的信息,比如检测量是否充足,密切接触者是否及时追踪,救治是否及时,医疗资源是否出现挤兑等等。

617日张文宏主任和我给清华大学所做的讲座《不确定疫情下的防控决策》中,我们首次提出,在不确定疫情的情况下,需要针对全球主要地区、国家、城市,进行传染病风险评级,支持重启国门开发的决策。

经过仔细分析,我们认为,以下的风险指标具有较为重要的警示意义,可以用于构建传染病风险指数:

·         累计感染率:每10万人感染数/Cases Per 100K Population

·         累计测试率:每10万人测试数/Tests Per 100K Population

·         当前感染率:每10万人当前感染数/Active Cases Per 100K Population

·         测试充足率:测试:阳性总数比例/Total Test:Positive Ratio

·         最新测试阳性率:New Positive Rate%

·         新增密切接触增速:Close Contact Growth Rate

·         新增确诊增速:New Confirmed Case Growth Rate

·         确诊死亡率:Case Fatality Rate%

·         新增死亡增速:New Death Case Growth Rate

·         非医学干预( NPI )有效性参数

其中新增密切接触增速和非医学干预( NPI )有效性参数不易获得,由于各国并非都披露密切接触者人数,也不是每国都能够充分追踪密切接触者;另外NPI有效性参数需要对于每国的趋势进行回归分析,比如下图:

因此,我们的第一版新冠疫情风险指数暂时不包括这两个指标,而其他指标根据以下权重进行加权平均。

 

 

 

下表为确诊人数在1万以上的国家地区的综合风险指数:

 

下表是所有含确诊病例的国家地区的综合风险指数及其子指数,由于子指数已经进行了标准化,所以有一半风险指数在50以下;一半风险指数在50以上。

 

Country/Region ind1 ind2 ind3 ind4 ind5 ind6 ind7 ind8 COVID-19 Risk Index
Myanmar 1.6 91.3 7.1 7.1 39.9 0.5 1.6 4.4 12.3
Taiwan 6.6 82.0 8.7 8.7 30.6 3.3 6.0 1.1 12.4
Botswana 8.7 57.9 2.7 2.7 19.7 3.8 7.7 23.5 13.6
Cambodia 2.7 87.4 5.5 5.5 96.2 1.6 2.7 0.5 14.1
China 13.7 29.0 0.5 0.5 76.5 21.3 11.5 2.2 14.2
Mauritius 35.5 15.3 2.2 2.2 52.5 8.2 28.4 8.2 15.1
Vietnam 1.1 84.7 1.1 1.1 95.6 16.9 1.1 1.6 16.1
Bhutan 19.7 43.2 3.3 3.3 100.0 4.9 16.4 29.5 20.3
Thailand 9.8 68.9 11.5 11.5 34.4 35.0 8.7 3.8 20.4
Angola 2.2 97.8 29.5 29.5 72.1 1.1 2.2 7.7 20.5
Belize 14.2 74.3 16.9 16.9 89.1 4.4 12.0 14.2 21.1
Rwanda 14.8 63.4 10.4 10.4 2.7 26.2 12.6 27.3 21.9
Hong Kong 25.7 35.5 4.9 4.9 9.3 46.4 20.8 14.8 22.9
Zimbabwe 8.2 77.0 14.2 14.2 19.1 28.4 7.1 24.0 23.2
Uganda 5.5 78.7 8.2 8.2 97.3 38.3 4.9 5.5 23.7
Cuba 29.5 59.6 20.8 20.8 60.1 20.2 23.0 10.4 25.1
Tunisia 20.8 71.6 24.0 24.0 66.1 17.5 17.5 12.6 25.3
Curaçao 24.6 69.4 30.1 30.1 67.2 5.5 20.2 17.5 25.6
Togo 16.4 79.2 27.3 27.3 43.7 19.7 14.2 19.7 26.5
Georgia 31.1 48.1 15.3 15.3 29.5 29.0 24.0 25.1 26.6
Tanzania 3.3 0.5 91.3 91.3 63.4 2.2 3.3 9.8 27.4
S. Korea 32.8 48.6 16.4 16.4 41.5 33.9 25.7 20.2 28.0
Malaysia 35.0 49.7 18.0 18.0 27.3 47.0 27.9 10.9 29.2
Slovakia 37.7 38.3 13.1 13.1 32.2 41.5 30.1 24.6 29.5
Sri Lanka 20.2 75.4 26.8 26.8 8.2 45.9 16.9 16.9 30.3
Lithuania 54.1 14.8 7.7 7.7 66.7 19.1 40.4 45.4 30.5
Benin 18.6 76.0 25.7 25.7 24.0 30.1 15.3 34.4 30.5
Mongolia 15.3 69.9 15.8 15.8 98.9 45.4 13.1 15.8 30.5
Cyprus 59.0 16.9 9.8 9.8 36.6 11.5 43.2 54.1 30.7
Burundi 4.4 98.9 82.5 82.5 12.0 2.7 4.4 8.7 30.8
Latvia 49.2 25.1 12.6 12.6 50.3 25.7 36.6 42.6 31.5
Monaco 78.7 9.8 9.3 9.3 61.7 13.7 48.1 41.5 32.5
Jordan 23.0 39.3 3.8 3.8 15.3 88.5 19.1 21.3 33.3
Jamaica 31.7 66.7 38.3 38.3 29.0 24.0 24.6 30.6 33.5
Australia 37.2 21.9 4.4 4.4 25.7 83.6 29.5 18.6 33.8
Bahamas 33.9 70.5 48.1 48.1 90.2 7.7 26.8 20.8 34.0
Papua New Guinea 0.5 96.7 1.6 1.6 95.1 94.0 0.5 2.7 34.2
Bermuda 76.0 14.2 19.7 19.7 80.3 13.1 47.5 35.5 34.4
Cayman Islands 81.4 10.4 14.8 14.8 7.1 14.2 48.6 55.7 34.5
Chad 13.1 2.7 93.4 93.4 88.5 23.5 10.9 3.3 34.7
Réunion 48.6 51.9 37.2 37.2 5.5 25.1 36.1 33.3 35.0
Uzbekistan 30.6 42.1 10.9 10.9 3.3 71.0 23.5 39.3 35.8
New Zealand 38.3 26.2 6.6 6.6 28.4 98.4 30.6 6.6 35.9
Iceland 90.2 12.6 33.9 33.9 7.7 29.5 51.4 21.9 37.2
Morocco 40.4 56.3 25.1 25.1 35.5 26.8 94.5 40.4 38.7
Lesotho 3.8 90.2 13.7 13.7 96.7 94.5 3.8 13.7 39.6
Mozambique 7.1 93.4 37.7 37.7 9.8 91.3 6.6 18.0 41.8
Venezuela 26.2 37.2 6.0 6.0 16.9 82.0 67.8 51.4 42.2
Gambia 6.0 94.0 29.0 29.0 70.5 95.6 5.5 11.5 42.3
Liberia 24.0 4.4 95.1 95.1 73.8 16.4 19.7 39.9 42.5
Uruguay 34.4 54.6 21.3 21.3 51.9 90.7 27.3 19.1 42.7
Somalia 27.9 5.5 96.2 96.2 54.1 6.6 21.9 52.5 42.9
Congo 29.0 6.0 96.7 96.7 57.9 7.1 22.4 50.3 43.2
Austria 72.7 27.3 36.6 36.6 62.3 42.1 46.4 32.2 43.6
Estonia 67.8 24.6 26.2 26.2 59.0 48.1 44.8 45.9 44.0
Denmark 73.8 13.7 18.6 18.6 73.2 35.5 97.3 47.5 44.2
Guyana 36.1 82.5 62.3 62.3 77.0 8.7 29.0 51.9 44.5
Namibia 12.0 81.4 21.9 21.9 98.4 90.2 10.4 29.0 44.6
Lebanon 33.3 54.1 19.1 19.1 38.3 86.3 26.2 41.0 44.7
South Sudan 26.8 92.9 75.4 75.4 35.0 6.0 21.3 57.4 44.8
Kazakhstan 63.9 25.7 20.2 20.2 13.1 44.8 61.2 69.9 45.1
Saint Martin 64.5 55.2 55.2 55.2 85.2 12.0 43.7 42.1 45.2
Channel Islands 83.1 29.5 52.5 52.5 87.4 14.8 49.7 38.3 45.6
Trinidad and Tobago 19.1 80.3 34.4 34.4 83.1 97.8 15.8 9.3 45.9
Comoros 39.9 7.1 97.8 97.8 48.1 9.3 31.7 50.8 45.9
DRC 17.5 3.8 94.5 94.5 43.2 32.2 80.3 33.9 46.3
Cameroon 46.4 8.2 98.9 98.9 46.4 10.4 35.0 44.8 46.4
Ethiopia 10.9 86.9 31.1 31.1 31.7 84.7 76.0 25.7 46.4
Japan 25.1 79.8 47.5 47.5 75.4 59.0 94.0 12.0 46.8
Libya 22.4 80.9 39.3 39.3 47.0 74.3 18.6 43.2 47.5
Nicaragua 41.5 7.7 98.4 98.4 58.5 9.8 32.8 55.2 47.9
Malta 68.9 13.1 12.0 12.0 24.6 100.0 45.4 37.2 48.0
Zambia 18.0 84.2 36.1 36.1 26.2 87.4 93.4 16.4 48.1
Guadeloupe 45.9 51.4 30.6 30.6 85.8 89.1 34.4 22.4 48.8
Burkina Faso 10.4 1.6 92.3 92.3 77.6 92.9 9.3 6.0 49.1
Slovenia 56.3 32.8 23.5 23.5 84.7 92.3 42.6 26.8 49.4
Kenya 21.9 83.6 43.2 43.2 45.9 62.3 89.6 36.6 49.5
Palestine 38.8 56.8 24.6 24.6 1.6 86.9 31.1 60.7 49.5
Poland 61.2 37.7 31.7 31.7 65.6 39.9 66.7 67.8 49.8
Mali 21.3 96.2 71.0 71.0 76.0 59.6 18.0 23.0 50.0
Greece 41.0 44.3 17.5 17.5 78.1 85.2 32.2 58.5 50.3
Paraguay 32.2 64.5 35.0 35.0 13.7 93.4 25.1 47.0 50.4
Madagascar 15.8 95.1 63.4 63.4 15.8 85.8 13.7 27.9 50.8
Maldives 85.8 23.0 50.3 50.3 4.9 22.4 50.3 79.8 50.9
Antigua and Barbuda 54.6 68.3 62.8 62.8 69.4 10.9 41.0 70.5 51.0
Eswatini 51.4 72.7 65.6 65.6 20.2 27.9 38.3 64.5 51.3
Senegal 43.2 76.5 61.2 61.2 30.1 32.8 79.2 53.6 51.6
Kyrgyzstan 51.9 43.7 28.4 28.4 18.6 80.9 38.8 65.0 52.3
Andorra 98.4 32.2 77.6 77.6 79.2 15.8 53.6 31.1 52.6
Macao 16.9 3.3 94.0 94.0 99.5 97.3 14.8 4.9 52.8
Finland 66.1 36.1 38.8 38.8 68.9 67.8 96.7 30.1 52.9
UAE 88.0 10.9 22.4 22.4 11.5 51.4 70.5 84.7 53.0
Ireland 89.1 24.0 54.6 54.6 83.6 31.1 98.4 36.1 53.0
Niger 9.3 98.4 72.1 72.1 82.5 96.2 8.2 7.1 53.1
Nigeria 23.5 97.3 74.3 74.3 44.3 50.8 55.7 38.8 53.5
Germany 74.9 27.9 43.7 43.7 69.9 54.6 69.4 48.1 53.5
Malawi 12.6 95.6 59.0 59.0 23.5 77.6 92.9 28.4 53.5
Canada 79.2 26.8 47.0 47.0 88.0 21.9 54.1 79.2 53.7
Montenegro 55.7 50.8 39.9 39.9 40.4 69.9 42.1 59.0 53.8
Nepal 44.3 55.7 32.2 32.2 2.2 70.5 95.6 66.1 54.0
Hungary 45.4 44.8 23.0 23.0 91.8 82.5 96.2 46.4 54.4
Syria 4.9 1.1 91.8 91.8 54.6 95.1 92.3 13.1 54.7
Croatia 50.8 53.6 40.4 40.4 64.5 91.8 37.7 37.7 54.8
Czechia 63.4 31.1 27.9 27.9 55.2 67.2 91.3 62.8 54.9
Equatorial Guinea 67.2 62.8 68.3 68.3 31.1 12.6 44.3 83.6 55.0
Norway 71.0 30.1 35.5 35.5 51.4 88.0 45.9 44.3 55.2
Eritrea 11.5 2.2 92.9 92.9 97.8 96.7 9.8 26.2 55.4
Tajikistan 49.7 8.7 99.5 99.5 17.5 43.7 37.2 56.3 55.4
Costa Rica 48.1 67.2 58.5 58.5 6.0 62.8 35.5 63.9 55.4
Russia 86.3 16.4 41.5 41.5 27.9 37.7 67.2 88.5 55.9
Ghana 47.5 63.9 51.9 51.9 10.9 65.6 86.9 54.6 56.2
Indonesia 28.4 85.8 57.9 57.9 74.9 56.8 85.2 48.6 56.4
Azerbaijan 68.3 33.9 41.0 41.0 21.9 55.7 84.2 77.6 57.1
Belarus 91.8 20.8 56.3 56.3 10.4 23.0 71.0 91.3 57.2
Bulgaria 53.0 52.5 42.1 42.1 72.7 63.9 79.8 62.3 57.6
India 42.6 73.2 56.8 56.8 53.6 60.1 72.7 56.8 57.7
Yemen 7.7 100.0 90.2 90.2 94.5 65.0 83.1 15.3 57.8
Turkey 74.3 38.8 54.1 54.1 48.6 55.2 61.7 61.7 57.9
Djibouti 87.4 33.3 63.9 63.9 20.8 48.6 50.8 61.2 58.0
Italy 84.7 23.5 49.2 49.2 92.9 49.7 59.6 63.4 58.3
Pakistan 61.7 73.8 71.6 71.6 39.3 27.3 57.4 73.8 58.4
Sierra Leone 27.3 4.9 95.6 95.6 65.0 76.0 80.9 31.7 58.4
Israel 77.0 20.2 33.3 33.3 26.8 66.1 91.8 77.0 58.6
Ivory Coast 42.1 88.5 73.2 73.2 12.6 43.2 95.1 59.6 58.9
Philippines 39.3 71.0 51.4 51.4 59.6 75.4 62.8 60.1 59.4
Guinea 43.7 91.8 82.0 82.0 8.7 68.9 33.3 43.7 59.4
Serbia 69.9 35.0 45.4 45.4 38.8 84.2 68.9 53.0 59.6
Luxembourg 92.9 12.0 32.8 32.8 49.2 89.6 51.9 57.9 59.8
Turks and Caicos 44.8 62.3 44.3 44.3 82.0 98.9 33.9 49.2 60.0
Romania 66.7 40.4 46.4 46.4 79.8 63.4 77.0 65.6 60.4
Sudan 30.1 99.5 90.7 90.7 80.9 40.4 62.3 49.7 60.6
El Salvador 60.1 49.2 44.8 44.8 45.4 72.1 83.6 67.2 60.7
Mayotte 96.7 42.6 80.9 80.9 23.0 15.3 53.0 82.5 61.2
Belgium 89.6 19.7 50.8 50.8 93.4 33.3 56.3 93.4 61.3
Algeria 36.6 6.6 97.3 97.3 84.2 83.1 57.9 35.0 61.9
Switzerland 83.6 28.4 53.6 53.6 81.4 79.8 97.8 32.8 62.2
Haiti 47.0 92.3 88.0 88.0 32.8 24.6 86.3 72.1 62.2
Ukraine 62.3 59.0 57.4 57.4 49.7 58.5 68.3 74.3 62.3
Suriname 53.6 88.0 81.4 81.4 47.5 47.5 39.9 68.3 63.1
Saudi Arabia 88.5 36.6 67.2 67.2 16.4 38.8 72.1 88.0 63.7
Mauritania 59.6 83.1 80.3 80.3 53.0 37.2 54.6 76.0 63.9
Portugal 85.2 19.1 45.9 45.9 61.2 57.9 88.0 85.8 64.0
Sao Tome and Principe 82.5 65.6 84.2 84.2 33.9 18.0 49.2 91.8 64.4
Iran 78.1 53.0 68.9 68.9 71.6 49.2 65.0 69.4 64.6
UK 86.9 15.8 42.6 42.6 92.3 50.3 73.2 98.9 64.7
Bangladesh 57.9 77.6 74.9 74.9 22.4 57.4 63.9 72.7 64.9
Albania 57.4 66.1 65.0 65.0 42.6 76.5 60.7 66.7 65.4
Iraq 62.8 61.7 60.1 60.1 60.7 61.2 84.7 75.4 65.7
Singapore 94.5 18.0 55.7 55.7 0.5 77.0 52.5 84.2 65.9
Bosnia and Herzegovina 65.0 47.0 48.6 48.6 68.3 78.1 90.2 71.6 65.9
Egypt 50.3 90.7 86.9 86.9 63.9 39.3 74.9 71.0 66.1
Chile 98.9 30.6 78.7 78.7 37.7 30.6 60.1 90.7 66.3
Afghanistan 56.8 89.1 85.8 85.8 42.1 34.4 90.7 74.9 66.4
Netherlands 80.9 41.5 61.7 61.7 90.7 36.6 69.9 98.4 66.8
Qatar 100.0 17.5 79.8 79.8 1.1 41.0 56.8 97.3 67.3
North Macedonia 80.3 45.4 64.5 64.5 71.0 51.9 58.5 89.1 67.4
Bahrain 99.5 11.5 49.7 49.7 3.8 73.8 71.6 95.6 67.8
Sweden 92.3 34.4 69.9 69.9 86.3 18.6 99.5 100.0 68.1
South Africa 73.2 47.5 60.7 60.7 36.1 78.7 59.0 83.1 68.6
Gabon 75.4 58.5 70.5 70.5 14.2 69.4 47.0 86.3 68.7
Moldova 84.2 57.4 78.1 78.1 56.3 31.7 89.1 89.6 69.1
Colombia 71.6 60.1 67.8 67.8 57.4 61.7 82.5 82.0 69.8
Cabo Verde 72.1 85.2 88.5 88.5 18.0 44.3 87.4 80.9 70.9
Kuwait 97.3 22.4 66.1 66.1 14.8 74.9 55.2 92.3 71.1
Argentina 65.6 67.8 73.8 73.8 41.0 71.6 73.8 80.3 71.3
Panama 93.4 45.9 79.2 79.2 37.2 42.6 74.3 95.1 71.4
Peru 96.2 31.7 72.7 72.7 56.8 52.5 64.5 94.0 71.4
CAR 55.2 74.9 69.4 69.4 21.3 99.5 41.5 76.5 71.4
Guinea-Bissau 58.5 94.5 89.6 89.6 25.1 56.3 81.4 78.7 72.0
Mexico 70.5 78.1 83.6 83.6 91.3 53.0 75.4 73.2 72.2
Brazil 90.7 60.7 86.3 86.3 67.8 36.1 63.4 92.9 72.7
USA 95.1 21.3 59.6 59.6 74.3 72.7 65.6 96.7 73.3
Spain 91.3 18.6 53.0 53.0 89.6 68.3 98.9 99.5 73.7
Oman 94.0 41.0 76.0 76.0 6.6 66.7 82.0 94.5 74.5
Ecuador 82.0 65.0 83.1 83.1 86.9 53.6 66.1 86.9 74.7
Guatemala 60.7 89.6 87.4 87.4 62.8 64.5 78.1 78.1 74.8
Dominican Republic 79.8 61.2 76.5 76.5 44.8 73.2 76.5 85.2 75.2
France 77.6 50.3 66.7 66.7 94.0 81.4 85.8 81.4 75.9
French Guiana 97.8 46.4 84.7 84.7 4.4 54.1 100.0 97.8 76.6
Bolivia 76.5 72.1 85.2 85.2 55.7 60.7 88.5 90.2 77.2
Armenia 95.6 39.9 77.0 77.0 33.3 79.2 78.7 96.2 79.1
Honduras 69.4 86.3 89.1 89.1 50.8 80.3 77.6 87.4 80.9

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